Golden Tempo shocked the racing world, bolting from last to first when it counted to win the 152^nd Kentucky Derby. It was all about knowing when to make the move.

Politics is a game of time and circumstance. You may not be able to control either, but as in racing, coming out of the gate first may not be the best approach.

Republican contenders for the party’s nomination for governor took the stage this week for their only televised debate before the May 19 primary. No fireworks were lit, not even a smoke bomb unleashed. Elevator speeches were rehearsed and delivered with near flawless discipline.

Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby), the presumed front-runner in the race, put her campaign message on cruise control, hugged the pole line, and trotted to the finish line with her competitors firmly in the rear view mirror.

The winner of the debate, however, may have been the one least likely to punch their ticket for the General Election in November.

 

“Sometimes you win by losing.”

— Jeremy Jackson, actor

 

Danielle Bethell, a Marion County Commissioner, has neither the name recognition nor financial war chest to be reasonably expected to win the primary vote over her well-funded competitors. That low expectation is her advantage at this time and in this circumstance.

Winning in May is not anticipated nor needed. She’s prepping for a longer race.

Republicans have long struggled building a strong bench of credible statewide candidates. After the primary, either Drazan or Chris Dudley will be eliminated from future governor scorecards as a two-time loser. The other could be eliminated in the general election if they fail to unseat the incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek.

In that scenario, Republicans will be looking ahead for a standard bearer in 2030. Bethell could fill that void. Losing a primary where she was given little expectation to win will not be a demerit. It will be viewed more of a coming-out party for the next generation of leadership.

She has acquitted herself well on the debate stage, exuding confidence and knowledge. While others offer platitudes, Bethell articulates execution. Governors and legislators set policy, but the counties are where the boots are on the ground dealing with the real-life challenges of implementation.

Challenges such as affordable housing, permitting, homelessness, and public health are dealt with by county commissioners every day. Bethell has skillfully introduced herself to Republican voters as someone who has actually experienced delivering on those issues.

She also successfully planted a stake in the ground on the important question of how she could achieve success with a legislature controlled by Democrats. She noted how she traveled to Washington, D.C. to work with the Biden administration on timber issues impacting Oregon counties and is now working with the Trump administration on support for dealing with mental health challenges in local communities.

Victory for Bethell is in building her name familiarity, growing favorable impressions, minimizing negative ones, and developing a network of statewide supporters that can be cultivated between now and the next gubernatorial election.

Tobias Read won the Secretary of State race in 2024 due in large part to the favorable impressions and network he built while losing to Kotek in the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Dennis Richardson, the only Republican to win a statewide office in decades, similarly won the Secretary of State post after a positive introduction to voters in a losing effort to then-Gov. John Kitzhaber two years earlier.

If Kotek wins re-election then Bethell will be the only remaining gubernatorial contender still holding public office and the public platform it provides.

From back in the pack to first at the tape. It’s all about pacing and knowing when to make your move. Golden Tempo lost a race just before the Derby. Nobody noticed. It was just a warmup. For Bethell the real race has just begun.