This is the second of a three-part series on the 2026 Salem mayoral race. It analyzes incumbent Julie Hoy’s path to retaining the seat. The first article looked at the Salem Chamber of Commerce Candidate Forum, sponsored by The Political Center. The third article analyzes Vanessa Nordyke’s potential path to victory.

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Politics can be rough. As Harry Truman is credited with saying, “If you want a friend, get yourself a dog.”

Salem Mayor Julie Hoy is up for election and is being challenged not by an outsider, but by a fellow colleague: City Councilor Vanessa Nordyke.

The setup for the May primary election cannot be framed as the usual outsider-versus-establishment contest. For Mayor Hoy, the race comes down to whether the electorate feels her leadership has been a positive or negative influence on the direction of the city.

Voter Perception on the “State of the City”

Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980 with a campaign built around a single question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” That question remains central to electoral battles today.

Although Hoy has only been in office for one year, her path to victory will be defined by how Salem residents feel about the city’s trajectory since her election. It will also be up to her to define that trajectory for voters, rather than ceding that narrative to her challenger.

One year ago, Salem faced a budget deficit nearing $20 million. Public trust in government was low. City officials had passed a tax on wages without a vote of the people — an issue voters referred to the ballot and soundly defeated.

That vote was a repudiation of operational mismanagement, runaway spending, lack of accountability, and insensitivity to the economic hardship many residents were facing.

Hoy fought vigorously against the tax and the then-incumbent mayor. Since her election, the city has carved away at the budget deficit, earned voter support for a measure funding parks and libraries, and initiated efforts to refund local businesses for money collected from a parking tax.

Nordyke will rightfully point to her many votes in support of those same initiatives.

Hoy needs to remind voters that these successes came under her watch and tie them directly to her leadership.

Continuity as a Re-election Argument

Hoy must position herself as a key driver behind the city’s fiscal turnaround. She also needs to remind voters that the work is far from finished and will require continuity of leadership. Subtly, she wants voters to conclude that this is the wrong time to change captains when the person at the helm has successfully piloted the ship into calmer waters.

“Look what we have done in just one year” should be her overarching theme. “Imagine what we can do together in the years ahead.”

Hoy does not need to claim sole credit for all of the city’s positive changes. Rather, she should emphasize that her leadership brought people together out of chaos and produced tangible results.

Housing and homelessness are issues where Hoy and Nordyke align on the urgency of action. Hoy can distinguish herself by articulating the collaborations she is building to find creative solutions to challenges faced by every Oregon city. As a longtime small business owner in Salem, she can demonstrate empathy for business owners struggling with these impacts while also recognizing the real human needs of those experiencing homelessness.

Compare and Contrast

Challenger Nordyke will highlight her qualifications by pointing to her work as the director of a nonprofit that advocates for abused and neglected children. She will cite her voting record in support of housing and other livability issues as evidence of her alignment with community values. She presents a strong résumé and is a skilled speaker.

Hoy’s challenge is to promote her own leadership on these issues without diminishing the good work of her colleague.

The Bottom Line

Julie Hoy’s viable path to re-election depends on her ability to convince voters that she has demonstrated effective leadership and advanced the city in ways that align with their values. Voters may feel good about her opponent but see no compelling reason to change direction.

In short, Hoy must persuade voters that the city is better off than it was a year ago—and that the best way to maintain that trajectory is to stay the course.