May is Kentucky Derby time. Mint juleps, flowery bonnets, and thundering hooves. Oregon has its own derby of sorts this May, as candidates break out of the gate and jockey for position to be the state’s next Governor.

Only one race will be run on May 19, however, as the Democratic race has been scratched. Ten candidates filed but nine of them failed to even enter the starting gate, leaving incumbent Tina Kotek as the only one to take a leisurely trot around the political racetrack.

What happened to the other nine? Not even one of them even bothered putting in a statement in the voter’s pamphlet about why people should vote for them. Nor have any raised a single dime to help promote their candidacy. And that “dime” reference is generous — they haven’t so much as raised a single penny.

If a candidate can’t think of any words to say about why they are worthy of a vote, they go from being a long shot to a no shot.

The Republican race, meanwhile, is shaping up to be a three-way sprint down the stretch.

“Dudley Do-Right,” “No Tax Diehl,” and “Blazen Drazan” are heavy oddsmakers bets to finish a winning trifecta. All three have easily outpaced the rest of the field in campaign contributions, although Drazan and Dudley are applying the whip, threatening to leave Diehl behind.

As of this writing, Christine Drazan has $1.545 million on hand, with Chris Dudley at $1,77 million. Ed Diehl has raised around $255,000 this year but only has $66,000 in the bank.

Like their Democratic counterparts, most of the remaining 11 candidates in the field — with the exception of Danielle Bethell and David Medina — have failed to raise any money at all. They just want to tell their grandchildren they were once a candidate for Governor.

Two long shots in the race will make the math for the three leading candidates interesting. Danielle Bethell is a current Marion County Commissioner. She presents well and has local name familiarity in a populous county. David Medina is an ultra-conservative social media personality and likely to draw some voters from that contingent of followers.

In the last gubernatorial primary in 2022, Drazan won in another crowded field with just 22% of Republican votes. Even the no-shows in this race — “No Chance in Hell,” “Perennial Player,” and “Delusional Dandy” — will garner some votes, further diluting the margin necessary to win. What is different from 2022 is that she now faces two significantly more formidable challengers.

Drazan will count on her name recognition to bolster her chances of hitting the tape first in May. Dudley can point to the fact he came the closest of any Republican in the last 40 years to win the Governor’s race when he lost by a scant 22,000 votes to John Kitzhaber in 2010, at a time when Kitzhaber’s approval rating at the time was higher than that of the current incumbent Kotek.

Diehl is hoping the huge database he collected from voters when he led the referendum campaign against the ODOT tax boost will translate into votes for him. Without money for traditional TV ads, Diehl’s expenditure reports indicate he is using social media and direct voter contact to energize his voters.

The ultimate victor will be the one who successfully targets their identified voters rather than waste precious resources on a scattershot approach. It could be a photo finish at the wire.